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Asia FX muted amid U.S.-China tensions, dollar dips before Powell

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Asia FX muted amid U.S.-China tensions, dollar dips before Powell
© Reuters.

By Ambar Warrick

Investing.com — Most Asian currencies moved in a tight range on Tuesday as concerns over rising U.S.-China tensions weighed, while the dollar weakened amid some bets that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will strike a less hawkish note during a testimony later in the day.

fell 0.1% after warned that a conflict with the U.S. could escalate if Washington does not soften its rhetoric against China.

His comments rattled sentiment towards China, largely offsetting data that showed the country logged a in February. But a bigger-than-expected decline in Chinese , coupled with a weak GDP forecast for 2023, raised concerns over a staggered economic recovery in the country.

Broader Asian currencies kept to a small range, with the falling 0.1%. Data showed that Japan’s slowed substantially in January, putting less impetus on the Bank of Japan to tighten its ultra-loose policy.

The fell 0.2% even as the and said it would tighten policy further to combat inflation. But the bank also noted that inflation had likely peaked in Australia, which could potentially herald an eventual slowdown in the bank’s rate hike cycle.

The led losses in Southeast Asia with a 0.4% drop, while the was muted as read lower than expected for February.

The also traded sideways following a softer-than-expected reading.

The dollar extended overnight losses against a basket of currencies, amid some bets that a recent cooling in the U.S. economy could elicit a less hawkish stance from the Fed’s Powell during a , which begins later on Tuesday.

The and fell 0.1% each, and were nursing steep losses from the prior week. U.S. Treasury yields also retreated further overnight, although an inversion in the persisted.

Powell is widely expected to provide more cues on monetary policy in the coming months, especially as resilience in the and stubborn inflation drove up fears of a more hawkish Fed.

But U.S. economic activity was also seen cooling under the yoke of high and , with contracting further in February.

Rising U.S. rates bode poorly for Asian currencies, as the gap between risky and low-risk debt narrows. The trend had battered Asian markets through 2022.

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Fed’s Bowman sees potential for interbank digital dollar

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Fed's Bowman sees potential for interbank digital dollar
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman gives her first public remarks as a Fed policymaker at an American Bankers Association conference in San Diego, California, U.S., February 11 2019. REUTERS/Ann Saphir

(Reuters) – A so-called “wholesale” central bank digital currency could hold promise for the future settlement of certain financial market transactions and processing international payments, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Tuesday.

While a digital dollar could make sense for interbank transactions, there could be unintended consequences like disruptions to the banking system if the Fed were to design a central bank digital currency that would be directly available to the public, Bowman said in prepared remarks for an event at Georgetown University’s Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy.

The U.S. central bank has not yet said if it would embark on an effort to create a central bank digital currency, and has previously said it would seek authorization from Congress and the executive branch before doing so.

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Dollar edges lower; Chinese growth data boosts risk sentiment

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Dollar edges lower; Chinese growth data boosts risk sentiment

By Peter Nurse

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar slipped lower in early European trade Tuesday, handing back some of the overnight gains as healthy Chinese growth data boosted risk sentiment.

At 02:05 ET (06:05 GMT), the , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower at 101.707, after rising 0.5% overnight.

China’s post-COVID recovery appears to be firmly on track, after data released earlier Tuesday showed that the second largest economy in the world in the first quarter year-on-year, beating forecasts for 4% growth, and registering a sharp acceleration from the previous quarter’s 2.9% reading.

Additionally, surged more than 10%, hitting a near two-year high, reinforcing hopes that the country’s post-pandemic recovery remains on course.

This news has boosted optimism about the global economic recovery, to the detriment of the safe-haven dollar.

The greenback had traded higher on Monday after data showed that increased for the first time in five months, lifting expectations that the will hike interest rates again at its next meeting in May.

“With the market conditions continuing to settle a little … it seems likely now that the Federal Reserve will deliver one last 25bp hike in May and then hit the pause button to wait on the effects of tighter credit conditions caused by the March banking turmoil,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

rose 0.1% to 1.0941, below the one-year high of 1.1075 it touched last week although the is widely expected to continue hiking interest rates this year with inflation still significantly higher than its inflation goal.

The ECB can discuss changing its 2% inflation goal but only after it brings down inflation to that level, President Christine Lagarde said on Monday.

rose 0.2% to 1.2392, after the rose to 3.8% in February, from 3.7%, a weaker result than expected. However, the is still expected to hike interest rates by another 25 basis points at its meeting next month with inflation remaining highly elevated.

Elsewhere, rose 0.5% to 0.6732 as the of the Reserve Bank’s recent meeting showed that the bank may yet hike interest rates further, despite a pause in April. 

fell 0.1% to 134.31, while dropped 0.1% to 6.8716, benefiting from the strong Chinese growth data.

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Asia FX dips as Fed jitters weigh, China GDP offers little support

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Asia FX dips as Fed jitters weigh, China GDP offers little support
© Reuters.

By Ambar Warrick

Investing.com — Most Asian currencies moved in a flat-to-low range on Tuesday as growing concerns over the path of U.S. monetary policy kept traders wary of risk-driven assets, while stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data did little to improve sentiment.

rose slightly after data showed that in the first three months of 2023 grew a bigger-than-expected 4.5%, after the country relaxed most anti-COVID restrictions earlier this year.

While the reading indicates that an economic recovery in the country is on track, other readings furthered the notion that a rebound has so far been largely uneven. Softer-than-expected data in particular highlighted continued weakness in the manufacturing sector.

Investment in China’s property sector also slowed, a trend that could weigh on growth later this year. Still, a recovery in China bodes well for the broader Asian economy, given the country’s position as a dominant trading hub.

But most other Asian currencies fell on Tuesday, coming under pressure from strength in the dollar and Treasury yields as markets reassessed their expectations for how high U.S. interest rates will rise.

Risk-heavy Southeast Asian currencies bore the brunt of selling, with the and the down 0.4% each. The was flat after falling sharply overnight, also coming under pressure from new Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stating that the bank’s ultra-loose policy will remain for now.

Among outliers for the day, the rose 0.2% as the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s recent meeting showed that the bank may yet hike interest rates further, despite a pause in April.

The and fell slightly on Tuesday, but marked a strong recovery from one-year lows over the past two sessions. show that markets are pricing in a nearly 90% chance the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points (bps) in May, with a small, but growing possibility of a similar hike in June.

Treasury yields also rose in overnight trade, as hawkish signals from Fed officials and some stronger-than-expected data pushed up fears of more hikes. Focus is now on a slew of Fed speakers in the coming days, ahead of the on May 3.

The prospect of rising U.S. interest rates bodes poorly for Asian currencies, given that it narrows the gap between risky and low-risk yields. Bank of International Settlements head Agustín Carstens also warned that interest rates may need to stay higher for longer due to high inflation and rising risks of instability in the global economy.

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