Connect with us

Forex News

Dollar edges higher; sterling lower despite U.K. avoiding recession

Published

on

Dollar edges higher; sterling lower despite U.K. avoiding recession
© Reuters

By Peter Nurse

Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade Friday, on course to post another positive week, amid caution ahead of next week’s crucial inflation data release.

At 03:00 ET (07:00 GMT), the , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher at 103.207, and is set to post its second straight positive week, a run it has not had since October.

The index has traded in a relatively tight range this week as traders digest economic data and try to parse speeches from a series of Fed policymakers for clues of the likely future pace of the ‘s rate hikes.

The number of Americans filing increased more than expected last week, rising for the first time in six weeks, but remained historically low.

And thus it’s the inflation portion of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate which is dominating thinking as far as monetary policy is concerned.

Fed Chair took a fairly dovish stance in a speech earlier this week, reiterating his belief that disinflation was underway, but his Fed colleagues have tended to express their desire for further rate hikes as the week has progressed.

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President was the latest to comment on Thursday.

“With demand slowing but still resilient, labor markets healthy and the added and unfortunately enduring shock of the war in Ukraine, it shouldn’t be a surprise that inflation — while likely past its peak — is still elevated,” Barkin said. “That, of course, is what makes the case for us to stay the course.”

This brings next week’s U.S. , due on Tuesday, firmly into focus, as it will shed further light on whether disinflation is well and truly underway.

Elsewhere, traded 0.1% lower at 1.0726, largely unchanged at 131.59, and the risk-sensitive fell 0.2% to 0.6923.

fell 0.1% to 1.2105 after data released Friday showed U.K. fell 0.5% on the month in December, however was unchanged in the fourth quarter, meaning the country’s economy just avoided entering a technical recession after falling 0.3% in the July-September quarter.  

rose 0.3% to 6.8013 after data showed grew less than expected in January, while fell further during the month. 

China’s economy is trying to recover from three years of restrictive COVID policies, and these numbers suggest it still faces a long road to reaching pre-pandemic levels of growth.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Forex News

Dollar retreats, euro gains after Credit Suisse boosts risk sentiment

Published

on

By

The U.S. dollar retreated in early European trade Thursday and the euro pushed higher as Credit Suisse’s move to bolster its financial position boosted risk sentiment.

At 03:55 ET (07:55 GMT), the , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.3% lower at 103.980, handing back some of the previous session’s 1% gain.

Credit Suisse (SIX:) announced late Wednesday to borrow as much as CHF 50 billion ($1 = CHF 0.9297) from the Swiss National Bank, strengthening its liquidity position.

Worries have been growing about the Swiss lender’s financial health for some time as it struggled with hefty customer outflows in the wake of a string of scandals. These came to head on Wednesday with its share price slumping to a record low as its main investor, Saudi National Bank, said it was unable to provide more funding to the lender.

The news of this credit line has boosted sentiment, soothing some concerns over an immediate collapse in the sector that had been hit hard by the three recent U.S. bank failures.

rose 0.4% to 1.0619, bouncing on the news, ahead of the European Central Bank’s latest policy-setting later in the session.

The ECB had previously signaled the likelihood of another interest rate increase of 50 basis points as underlying Eurozone remained elevated, but concerns about potential repercussions to the banking sector from such a hefty hike could prompt the policy makers to act more cautiously.

“The market will … take its cue from the European Central Bank today. Pushing on with a 50bp rate hike will prove difficult and we should expect more volatility immediately after the … decision,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

ECB President Christine Lagarde’s will also be of interest as she is sure to be asked how the central bank can balance efforts to deliver price stability while safeguarding financial stability.

The question is the same in the U.S., with the likely to hold back from increasing interest rates by an outsized 50 basis points next week, given the strain on the U.S. banking system.

Goldman Sachs has lifted its estimate of the odds of a U.S. recession to 35% over the next 12 months in response to increased uncertainty over the economic impact of bank stress, an increase from 25% previously.

Elsewhere, rose 0.3% to 1.2105, boosted by the improved risk sentiment. Also helping was Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s comments in the budget on Wednesday that the economy was likely to shrink 0.2% in 2023, an improvement from the previous forecast for a 1.4% contraction.

fell 0.5% to 132.69, with the yen one of the best performers of the day. The risk-sensitive rose 0.6% to 0.665670, while edged 0.1% lower to 6.9007.

Continue Reading

Forex News

China wants weaker US dollar as reserve currency, says Biden economist nominee

Published

on

By

China wants weaker US dollar as reserve currency, says Biden economist nominee
© Reuters. Dr. Jared Bernstein testifies on his nomination to be Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., April 18, 2023. REUTERS/Amanda Andrade-Rhoades

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – There was “some evidence” that China wants the dollar to weaken as the international reserve currency, said a White House nominee for a top economist position on Tuesday, and he urged Congress to raise the U.S. debt ceiling to protect the dollar’s value.

Jared Bernstein, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, told a Senate Banking Committee hearing on his nomination to head the body that U.S. control of the world’s reserve currency offered a number of benefits, including the ability to impose sanctions, as Washington had done on Russia over its war against Ukraine.

Asked about an essay he published in the New York Times in 2014 entitled “Dethrone King Dollar” and whether the U.S. would be better off if it were to lose that status, Bernstein told the committee, “Definitely not.”

Bernstein, who wrote the piece while serving as a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said the essay was intended to show both the “very solid benefit” of having the world’s reserve currency, but also the costs, including the ability of China and other countries to manage their currencies to have a trade advantage.

Asked by Republican Senator Bill Haggerty where he stood now, Bernstein said, “I share your view on the importance of the dollar as the dominant reserve currency.”

Bernstein used the exchange to underscore the administration’s concerns about the looming deadline this June for Congress to raise the debt ceiling or risk default, and Republican efforts to condition that approval on budget cuts.

He said raising the debt ceiling would help maintain the dollar’s reserve currency status and protect its value. “Having that kind of kind of default out there as a political tool is antithetical to what you and I are talking about right now.”

While Bernstein did not elaborate on China, the U.S. Treasury in November found no major U.S. trading partners manipulated its exchange rates to gain unfair advantage through June 2022, but would monitor China and six other countries.

The Treasury report criticized China for not publishing foreign exchange intervention and lack of transparency around its exchange-rate mechanism. China has previously denied intervening to weaken the yuan.

Weak tax collections in April could mean the U.S. government’s deadline to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling will happen sooner than expected, analysts said on Tuesday.

The Treasury Department has warned that the federal government might no longer be able to meet its financial obligations as early as June 5, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has forecast that moment would come between July and September.

Continue Reading

Forex News

Fed’s Bowman sees potential for interbank digital dollar

Published

on

By

Fed's Bowman sees potential for interbank digital dollar
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman gives her first public remarks as a Fed policymaker at an American Bankers Association conference in San Diego, California, U.S., February 11 2019. REUTERS/Ann Saphir

(Reuters) – A so-called “wholesale” central bank digital currency could hold promise for the future settlement of certain financial market transactions and processing international payments, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Tuesday.

While a digital dollar could make sense for interbank transactions, there could be unintended consequences like disruptions to the banking system if the Fed were to design a central bank digital currency that would be directly available to the public, Bowman said in prepared remarks for an event at Georgetown University’s Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy.

The U.S. central bank has not yet said if it would embark on an effort to create a central bank digital currency, and has previously said it would seek authorization from Congress and the executive branch before doing so.

Continue Reading

Trending